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April CPI on the Cusp of Deflation in U.S. and Canada - Expect Moderation through July

May 20, 2009 - Alex Carrick
Abstract:

The two graphs that accompany this report tell it all. The peak for consumer prices in both the United States and Canada occurred last summer − July in the U.S. and August in Canada. There was a specific reason and it had to do with commodity prices that crested in July. The world price of oil rose to its peak level ever of $145 USD per barrel. Many commodity prices fell dramatically after that. Oil prices reached their bottom in February of this year at $34 USD per barrel. Therefore, year-over-year percentage changes can only be mild until both economies move past the summer of this year.

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