The economic environment for homebuilders worsened further in December and almost certainly in January as well. Recent gains in home affordability are now being eroded by the stall in job growth and the related stall in real income growth. The probability of a recession is now over 50%. Any recession would be mild and brief since it would begin without a serious surplus inventory problem generally in the economy, as well as still-rising export sales to a world economy expanding much faster than the U.S.